The Trump Crypto Bill (FIT21): Macro Impacts on US Treasuries and Bitcoin [EN]
"A new monetary order is always born when the last page of the old code is torn away. The crypto legislation pushed by the Trump administration is not a simple deregulation. It is the most intense struggle for survival, aiming to implant stablecoins—the 'Synthetic Petrodollar' of the 21st century—right into the heart of America to defend a crumbling dollar hegemony. At the crossroads of this massive transition, we must stand together to observe the fault lines and prepare to ride the next wave."
— System View Macroeconomic Framework
Prologue: A Market Observer's Perspective
This report deconstructs the 'Crypto Bill (FIT21 and Stablecoin Regulation)'—which has passed the U.S. House of Representatives as of 2026 and is now catching its breath at the Senate's doorstep—through an entirely new macro perspective. We shouldn't consume this issue merely as gossip about 'whether Bitcoin prices will go up or down.' Do you remember the declaration of the UAE's exit from OPEC that we fiercely analyzed together in the past? At the exact moment traditional oil money is turning its back and exiting the U.S. Treasury market, America is desperately seeking new Treasury buyers. Behind the curtain of regulatory uncertainty, Wall Street's massive capital and Silicon Valley's tech power are already lined up at the tollgates of a new highway called the 'Digital Dollar'. Amidst this forest of cold data, let's take a step-by-step look together at the massive opportunities that will explode if this bill passes, and the painful price America will have to pay if it is rejected.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The biggest detonator currently choking the market is 'Regulatory Limbo'. While the crypto bill—passed through the House with a strong drive by the Trump administration—drifts in the Senate, trillions of dollars in massive institutional capital wait outside the dam, only fueling market volatility.
If the bill passes the Senate, it means dollar-based stablecoins (USDT, USDC, etc.) will be incorporated into the U.S. financial system as official pipelines. They will rise as 'emerging Treasury whales,' sucking up global liquidity to endlessly buy U.S. short-term Treasuries (T-Bills), and Bitcoin will undergo an explosive re-evaluation as a legitimate reserve asset replacing gold. Conversely, if the bill is stranded due to political deadlock, this innovative capital will ruthlessly flee America for pro-crypto nations in the Middle East or Asia. This would be a painful own-goal for American hegemony, triggering uncontrollable Capital Flight.
01. Macroeconomy: The 'New Heart' to Transfuse the Crumbling Dollar Ecosystem
└ The T-Bill Accumulation Trajectory of Stablecoins (Hard Data)
The hard data we need to intuitively grasp first is: 'Who is buying America's debt (Treasuries) right now?' Traditional whales like China and Saudi Arabia have been dumping U.S. Treasuries and switching to physical Gold for years. Surprisingly, however, there is a force quietly and fiercely filling that void. It is stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle.
Currently, to peg the value of their issued coins to $1, they are sweeping up over $120 billion in U.S. short-term Treasuries and Reverse Repos (RRP). This easily surpasses the foreign exchange reserves of a typical developed nation and is a formidable figure that places them within the top 20 global holders of U.S. Treasuries. If the bill pending in the Senate passes and gives them the wings of a 'legitimate financial institution,' this Treasury buying scale could expand explosively. In other words, the crypto bill is not a simple coin industry promotion policy; it is the most powerful and desperate 'macro lifeboat' the U.S. government has dug for itself to stop its snowballing fiscal deficit.
[System View Live Data: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - The Massive Condensation Waiting for Senate Passage]
* Live BTC Chart: The moment the regulatory curtain lifts, we will trace together the explosive candlestick trajectory created by the influx of institutional capital.
02. [Risk Transfer Timeline] The 4-Phase Trajectory of Digital Hegemony Reflected in Asset Markets
└ Capital Movement Before and After the Senate Vote Watershed
Depending on the direction of the bill, the temperature of the asset market will flip dramatically. We need to see through this timeline of change in advance, build our positions without wavering at each stage, and move forward together.
[Macro Trajectory] 4-Phase Timeline Based on Crypto Bill Passage/Rejection
| Phase | Market Signal (Trigger) | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 (Current) | Passed House, pending in Senate. Political calculations and cautious standoffs maximize. | BTC box-range sideways & altcoin liquidity drought |
| Phase 2 (Watershed) | Senate vote imminent. Dramatic agreements or negotiation breakdown news flood in. | Related stocks (COIN, MSTR) wild swings & VIX surge |
| Phase 3 (Decision) | [If Passed] Wall Street mega banks' earnest entry into coin custody business. [If Rejected] Crypto companies announce mass offshore relocation to evade regulations. |
[Passed] BTC breaks ATH & traditional financial stocks benefit. [Rejected] Chain flash crashes across the coin market. |
| Phase 4 (Structuring) | [Base Case] Stablecoin issuance exceeds $1 trillion. Dollar reserve currency status extended. | Contributes to the stabilization of the U.S. T-Bill (BIL) yield curve |
03. System Architecture: Birth of the 'Synthetic Petrodollar' and the Extension of Dollar Hegemony
└ Filling the Pipe Vacated by Oil with Coin
It is time for us to peel back the noisy political bickering on the news surface and look together into the massive plumbing work of capital hidden behind it. The magic that made America the world's most powerful empire since the 1970s was the 'Petrodollar'. As oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia used their oil revenues to buy U.S. Treasuries, America was able to freely take on debt to run its economy. However, as the oil cartel collapsed, this circulation pipe began to break.
America is now building a new digital pipeline called 'Stablecoins' instead of oil. To issue coins like USDT or USDC, one must buy dollar cash or U.S. short-term Treasuries (T-Bills) 1:1 matching the issuance volume and fill their vaults. What happens if the crypto bill passes and billions of people worldwide routinely use this digital dollar without borders? The U.S. government can sit back and suck global liquidity into the U.S. Treasury market like a black hole. This is exactly what we call the birth of the 'Synthetic Petrodollar'—the core architecture for extending dollar hegemony.
04. Reorganization of the Capital Ecosystem: The Great Convergence of Wall Street and Crypto
└ Opening of the Custody Business and the Fierce Entry of Mega Banks
The most violent and certain change that will occur in the capital ecosystem when the bill passes is the shift in the 'vaults of money'. Because of the SEC's strict accounting guidelines (like SAB 121), America's traditional massive banks have been unable to jump into the 'Custody' business, which stores cryptocurrencies on behalf of clients. Coins were merely treated as dangerous toys handled by hackers outside of regulation.
But if those shackles are released by this bill, centuries-old Wall Street behemoths like BNY Mellon and JPMorgan will begin to legally swallow the crypto market. The crypto ecosystem, once a rebellious technological innovation, will now be perfectly integrated as the most reliable and legal profit-generating pipe for the establishment Wall Street. We must trace together not only the price rise of Bitcoin itself, but also the quiet re-evaluation trajectory of traditional financial stocks that will collect the tolls of this new market.
05. Historical Comparative Analysis: The 1971 Nixon Shock vs. The 2026 Digital Dollar
└ The Historical Decalcomania of Breaking the Shackles of Gold
This massive transition unfolding before our eyes forms a perfect decalcomania with the 'Nixon Shock' of 1971, when President Nixon declared, "We will no longer exchange dollars for gold." At that time, America liberated the dollar from the physical limits of gold, ushering in an era of infinite credit expansion. In 2026, the Trump administration and Congress are trying to liberate the dollar—which had been tied to physical oil and archaic banking networks—into a global network called the blockchain to seize digital hegemony.
[System View Data] Macro Evolution of Dollar Hegemony (1971 vs 2026)
* Analysis Summary: Just as dollar hegemony would have collapsed without 'oil' in the 1970s, failing to bring the new buyer called 'stablecoins' into the institutional fold in 2026 will inevitably cause structural seizures in the U.S. Treasury market.
06. System Fracture Defense Logic: Public Misconceptions and Macroeconomic Refutations
Before we ride this massive capital migration (Money Move), we must coldly verify our own logic. Let's look together at the common questions prevalent among the public and the real macro reality hidden behind them.
└ Q1. "Will the U.S. government and the Fed really allow private stablecoins that could threaten dollar hegemony?"
[Defense Logic]: Many people misunderstand stablecoins as a 'competitor to the dollar.' But the macro reality is the exact opposite. Right now, the Fed does not have the power to order foreign countries to forcefully buy U.S. Treasuries. In fact, China and BRICS are escaping the dollar network. At this time, private companies like Tether and Circle collect people's money worldwide and voluntarily buy U.S. short-term Treasuries (T-Bills) to fill their vaults. From the U.S. government's perspective, they are not competitors but 'the most loyal Treasury buying troops.' Passing the bill to bring them into the institutional fold does not threaten dollar hegemony; rather, it is an outsourcing task to build a 21st-century dollar empire in the most cost-effective way.
└ Q2. "Do traditional Wall Street banks really have a reason to jump into the highly volatile and risky crypto Custody business?"
[Defense Logic]: We need to accurately see the nature of institutional investors. Wall Street mega banks do not risk their lives on 'directional bets' of whether Bitcoin prices will go up or down. What they want is 'Rent'—collecting tolls by setting up an enclosure. After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock and Fidelity have already swept up tens of billions of dollars, proving the explosive demand of this market. Currently, trapped behind the iron bars of SEC accounting regulations (SAB 121), Coinbase has monopolized these custody fees. But the moment the iron bars open with the bill's passage, massive predators like JPMorgan and BNY Mellon, who have stored clients' assets for centuries, will fiercely enter and reclaim market share. This is because it is not a dangerous gamble, but the safest and most certain fee business.
└ Q3. "If the vote ultimately falls through due to extreme political confrontation in the Senate, won't the cryptocurrency market just collapse?"
[Defense Logic]: A short-term Flash Crash would be unavoidable. But what we must keep in mind is the fact that capital is like water; when you build a wall, it doesn't get blocked, it flows to the place of least resistance. If the bill falls through, the crypto ecosystem doesn't end; 'America's crypto hegemony' ends. Innovative capital managing trillions of dollars will leave America without hesitation and relocate their headquarters to the UAE (which has already laid out the red carpet), Hong Kong, or Singapore. This is not bad news for the coin market; it is a fatal own-goal by the U.S. macroeconomy, kicking away its own Treasury buying base. Instead, Bitcoin, having escaped the regulatory risks of a single nation like the U.S., will see its value as true stateless 'Hard Money' solidify even further in the long run.
Macro Scenario: Probabilistic Future Trajectories
Standing before this massive watershed we face, both blind hope and vague fear are poison. There is no such word as 'absolute' in the capital market. From a strictly cold and objective probabilistic perspective, we must break down the three macro scenarios that will unfold and prepare for each wave.
└ Scenario A (Base Case): Dramatic Agreement and the Institutionalization of 'Digital Treasury Whales' (60%)
[Premise & Development]: Even as the political calculations of both parties clash tightly, a dramatic compromise is reached in the face of national practical interests: 'securing U.S. Treasury buyers' and 'maintaining U.S. financial hegemony.' Stablecoins are recognized as legal payment methods, and the shackles on Wall Street mega banks' custody businesses are released.
[Asset Impact]: Trillions of dollars of massive institutional funds waiting on the sidelines pour in through the doors of legality. Bitcoin (BTC) enters a structural rally, breaking its all-time high as 'digital gold,' while Coinbase (COIN) and traditional bank stocks rise together, benefiting from the new fee pipeline. Macroeconomically, stablecoin issuers like Tether establish a strong buying defense line for U.S. short-term Treasuries (BIL), greatly easing America's debt burden.
└ Scenario B (Prolonged Crisis): Prolonged Senate Deadlock and Liquidity Drought (25%)
[Premise & Development]: Pushed aside by political events like midterm elections, the Senate vote on the bill is delayed indefinitely. The ambiguous 'gray area' stance of existing regulatory bodies, including the SEC, is prolonged, continuing a cautious standoff where no one dares to move first.
[Asset Impact]: This is the most agonizing scenario. Institutional funds withhold entry citing regulatory risks, and the cryptocurrency market is dragged around with no clear direction, grabbed by the collar only by macro variables (inflation, employment indicators). Altcoin liquidity dries up, and only Bitcoin's market Dominance abnormally increases. This vampire-like sideways box market and extreme volatility (VIX surge) will drain the energy of market participants.
└ Scenario C (Tail Risk): Final Bill Rejection and the 'Capital Exodus' Trigger Activated (Around 15%)
[Premise & Development]: The voices of strong pro-regulation advocates win, and the bill is ultimately stranded. From this point, an all-out crypto crackdown by U.S. law enforcement agencies begins.
[Asset Impact]: In the short term, margin calls trigger an unavoidable bloodbath (Flash Crash) across the coin market. But what we should really fear is what comes next. Innovative capital and infrastructure, disgusted by U.S. regulations, pack their bags and execute a massive Exodus to the UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore. This is a macroeconomic own-goal where America kicks away its own digital financial hegemony. In the long run, it accelerates the departure of the U.S. Treasury buying base, ultimately returning as a painful butterfly effect triggering a spasmodic surge in U.S. long-term Treasury yields (TLT plunge).
Implications from an Investor's Perspective (Exit & Entry)
At this inflection point where a massive tectonic shift in capital is beginning, we shouldn't simply play an odd/even game of 'up or down.' Aligning with the political trigger of the bill's passage, our portfolio must be built three-dimensionally, from the safest defense line to an offensive line aiming for explosive alpha returns. I present a concrete action plan for us to ride this wave together.
└ Entry Triggers
① [High Certainty] Spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, etc.) & BNY Mellon (BK) — Core Position (50%)
Entry Rationale: Whether the bill passes or is delayed, this is the backbone that will survive the most solidly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already become a legal safe haven for institutional funds. On top of this, we bundle 'BNY Mellon (BK)', America's oldest bank which will be the first to swallow the pie of the custody market when the regulatory iron bars open, to execute the most defensive and certain pincer movement. Scale in whenever political uncertainty shakes the market.
② [Medium Certainty] Coinbase (COIN) — Satellite Position (30%)
Entry Rationale: The moment news of a dramatic Senate passage breaks, this is the Beta target that will bounce the most elastically. The bill's passage means the resolution of the 'SEC lawsuit risk' Coinbase has been carrying. However, because it holds the double-edged sword of intensifying competition with Wall Street mega banks, we approach this with a Satellite strategy to eat the short-term momentum and exit rather than as a core position.
③ [High Risk] Major Altcoins (ETH, SOL, etc.) — Hedge Position (20%)
Entry Rationale: When the 'yoke of illegality' covering the entire cryptocurrency market is stripped away by the bill's passage, this is an option-like bet that will absorb explosive liquidity far greater than Bitcoin. However, because it must endure extreme volatility right before the Senate vote, we enter at a level never exceeding 20% of the portfolio.
└ Exit Conditions
Warning Signal 1: "Indefinite Postponement of the Senate Vote" (1st Warning Light)
If an official announcement is made that the vote will be pushed to the next session due to midterm election pressure or political deadlock, the market falls into a severe liquidity drought (Scenario B). If this signal flashes, immediately reduce altcoin and Coinbase (COIN) weights by half and secure cash.
Warning Signal 2: "Final Bill Rejection and Executive Veto" (Full Liquidation Warning Light)
If news breaks that the bill is ultimately stranded and the massive crackdown net of U.S. law enforcement is reactivated, the great Exodus of innovative capital begins. In this case, you must avoid fatal injury by selling (liquidating) all cryptocurrency-related assets (including stocks) at market price, except for Bitcoin.
Opportunity Window: "Temporary Flash Crash Due to Capital Outflow" (Contrarian Opportunity)
If the bill is rejected and the market faces a bloodbath, this does not mean the end of Bitcoin. It just means capital escapes America and moves to the UAE or Asia. The moment Bitcoin prices plunge irrationally due to extreme fear will rather be the once-in-a-lifetime 'Buy the Dip' opportunity to scoop up Bitcoin at its cheapest as a global currency that has transcended U.S. regulatory barriers.
[Action Plan] Dynamic Portfolio Switching Based on Crypto Legislative Trajectory
• If Market Flash Crash Occurs → Switch to BTC Buy the Dip (Opportunity Window) with secured cash
Conclusion
The Trump administration's crypto bill is not merely a life vest for coin investors alone. It is a desperate survival strategy for the U.S. economy—which has lost oil and suffers from massive deficits—to legally bring in a new 'T-Bill sponge' called stablecoins.
We are waiting for the moment this massive capital plumbing work is completed. When the valve of Senate passage opens, Wall Street's traditional capital and Silicon Valley's innovative capital will mix into one, completing a new form of 'Digital Hegemony'. Conversely, if this valve is ultimately blocked, capital will flow like water to the resistance-free Middle East and Asia, accelerating the loss of American hegemony. The massive wave of the macroeconomy has already begun to crash. Let us not be swept away by fear, but move forward together without wavering, using this cold logic and action plan we have built as our compass.
※ Disclaimer
This report is not investment advice soliciting the purchase or sale of specific assets; it is an analysis framework of the System View based on public data and macroeconomic flows. Depending on whether the bill pending in the Senate passes, the SEC's regulatory direction, and the trajectory of global fund movements, the asset market can experience extreme volatility. The final judgment and responsibility for all investments lie with the investor, and please keep in mind that positions related to cryptocurrency in particular carry a very high possibility of principal loss due to regulatory risks.
Sources and References
[¹] Investing.com — Despite Biden and SEC opposition... FIT21 Bill passes the House — 2024-05-24 — https://kr.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/article-1085275
[²] TokenPost — US House passes FIT21, the first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory bill — 2024-05-22 — https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/international/179167
[³] Yonhap News (Quoted) — US Senate leans toward 'allowing limits' on stablecoin interest payments — 2026-01-13 — https://zdnet.co.kr/view/?no=20260114080632
[⁴] Korea Economic Daily — Will stablecoins get their wings... Bill passes US Senate — 2025-06-18 — https://www.hankyung.com/article/202506183136i
[⁵] The Global Economic News — Trump's Stablecoin Act reduced to a tool for strengthening US dollar hegemony... Foreign issuers... — 2025-11-20 — https://www.g-enews.com/article/Global-Biz/2025/11/202511201638388077fbbec65dfb_1
[⁶] Chosun Ilbo — The 'Defending Dollar Hegemony' strategy hidden within Dollar Stablecoins — 2026-04-08 — https://www.chosun.com/economy/weeklybiz/2026/04/09/OSOVOVDS25GA5D6LBZNZWEUFYY/
[⁷] Reuters — Circle tops revenue expectations on strong stablecoin circulation — 2026-02-25 — https://www.reuters.com/technology/circles-fourth-quarter-revenue-rises-strong-stablecoin-circulation-2026-02-25/
[⁸] Circle Transparency — Transparency & Stability — (Always open page) — https://www.circle.com/transparency
[⁹] Tether Transparency — Transparency — (Reserve report released as of 2026-03-31) — https://tether.to/ru/transparency/?tab=reports
[¹⁰] IMF — Stablecoin Shocks, WP/26/44 — 2026-03 — https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026044-source-pdf.pdf
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